Maps of the Month

September 2018:
Possible 2027 Effects of the Passage of California Proposition 6 on Future Bay Area Pavement Condition

Posted by Joshua Croff | MTC GIS

This month’s map in illustrates the impact on local pavement condition that could result from the passage or failure of Proposition 6, a statewide measure that has been submitted to California voters for consideration on November 6th, 2018. This trio of maps focuses on Pavement Condition Index (PCI), a metric used in determining the structural quality of existing roadway surfaces. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with 0 representing a failed road and 100 representing a brand-new facility. Currently in the nine-county Bay Area region, the 109 jurisdictions (including unincorporated parts of the counties) have an average PCI score of 67, which corresponds to a “Fair” condition. Should Proposition 6 pass, the Bay Area’s average PCI score would fall to 57, which is “At risk” of failure. If Proposition 6 fails, SB 1 funds will remain intact thus providing dedicated funding to address significant deferred maintenance in the region’s local road network and hold the average PCI score steady at 66 in 2027. Individual jurisdictions may notice a decline in their average PCI score even if Proposition 6 fails. This is because even with the SB 1 funding, a jurisdiction’s average PCI score may still worsen over the next decade due to decades of underfunding. However, localities would see a far more precipitous decline in their PCI score -- with far costlier repair implications -- should Proposition 6 pass.

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July 2018:
U.S. White Population Growth Rate, 1790-2020

Posted by Joshua Croff | MTC GIS

This month’s Map of the Month highlights an absolute decline in the nation’s white non-Hispanic population—accelerating a phenomenon that was not projected to occur until the next decade. America’s white population saw increases between 1790 when the first census was taken until 1960 when the population growth began to decline. According to numbers released by the Census in 2017, the nation experienced an absolute decline of about 9,000 whites between 2015 and 2016 and more than 31,000 whites between 2016 and 2017. Using a simple linear projection, we could expect to see a continued decline in white population of anywhere between 17,000 and 20,000 people from 2017 to the next decennial census in 2020.

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June 2018:
U.S. Immigration, 1820-Present

Posted by Joshua Croff | MTC GIS

From 1920 to 2013, 79 million people obtained lawful permanent resident status in the United States. This month’s Map of the Month visualizes all of them based on their prior country of residence. The brightness of a country corresponds to its total migration to the U.S. at the given time. 1 dot = 10,000 people.

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May 2018:
When Will Bay Area Cities Reach Plan Bay Area 2040 Housing Targets?

Posted by Joshua Croff | MTC GIS

To beat a dead horse, May’s Map of the Month highlights the continued housing production challenges in the Bay Area, comparing Department of Finance housing production data between January 2010 and December 2017 with the Plan Bay Area 2040 housing forecasts by jurisdiction. This month's map shows the year that each city or town would meet its Plan Bay Area 2040 housing growth forecast if it continues on its recent production trajectory, during this lengthy economic expansion. Not surprisingly, most jurisdictions are lagging the Plan’s housing goals – meaning that the region won’t reach its 2040 housing goal until 2072 at the current pace. Notable bright spots for housing production include: Dublin, Pleasanton, and San Ramon in the Tri-Valley; Pittsburg and Brentwood in eastern Contra Costa County; Fairfield in Solano County; and Gilroy and Morgan Hill in southern Santa Clara County. Of the big three cities, San Francisco and San Jose are somewhat behind where they need to be, while Oakland would not reach its 2040 housing goal until 2295 given its pace of development since 2010. Additional analyses on housing trends through 2017 will be publicly released on the Vital Signs performance monitoring website next month.

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April 2018:
The High Stakes of Census 2020

Posted by Joshua Croff | MTC GIS

April’s Map of the Month was recently featured in a post from CityLab and highlights potential issues with the Census Bureau’s recent decision to include a question about citizenship in the upcoming 2020 Census. Though the issue of adding this question to the census largely has been thought of as a partisan one, a deeper investigation reveals there may be consequences for both parties. The map uses data from the Census Bureau’s new Response Outreach Area Mapper (ROAM) and shows predicted mail non-response rates. The darker blue areas depict low mail-in response areas. While these areas tend to be most concentrated in immigrant-dense areas along the West Coast, battleground states like Colorado and Florida as well as states like Mississippi and the Carolinas with difficult-to-reach populations could also be adversely affected.  Undercounts in those areas may lead to loss of congressional seats in states that might otherwise expect to gain seats after 2020 Census. Undercounts also would lead to a loss of funding for states, since many federal programs base funding on population counts.

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March 2018:
Bay Area Opportunity Zones

Posted by Joshua Croff | MTC GIS

This month’s Map of the Month highlights Bay Area Opportunity Zones as designated by the State of California Department of Finance. The federal tax bill, passed in December 2017, allows investors to defer or eliminate capital gains on investments made in “Opportunity Zones”. These zones must be designated by the governor in each state from a set of eligible Census tracts. Governors must select no more than 25 percent of eligible tracts statewide. Federal criteria for determining eligible areas states that tracts must either have poverty rates above 20 percent or median family income below 80 percent of either the statewide or metropolitan area income. 3,516 Census tracts in California qualify under this criteria, spread across 54 counties. Of these the governor must select tracts as Opportunity Zones in California. The state’s final recommendation is provided on the map. Within the Bay Area, 530 tracts were eligible under the federal criteria, of which 107 were designated by the governor. Of the 107 designated tracts, 94 tracts were MTC Communities of Concern.

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February 2018:
SB35 Bay Area Regional Determination

Posted by Joshua Croff | MTC GIS

This month's Map of the Month identifies locations where Bay Area jurisdictions are required by Senate Bill 35 to streamline the approval process for housing developments that meet certain requirements. A jurisdiction is subject to SB 35’s streamlining requirements if it has not made sufficient progress toward its Regional Housing Need Allocation (RHNA) goals, or if it failed to submit its latest Housing Element Annual Progress Report. Jurisdictions that did not permit enough above-moderate income units to meet a pro-rata share of their above-moderate income regional housing need for the current housing element cycle, are subject to SB 35 streamlining for projects that dedicate a minimum of 10 percent of units to be affordable to lower-income households. sJurisdictions that did not permit sufficient lower income units (very-low and low-income) to meet a pro-rata share of their very-low and low-income regional housing need for the current housing element cycle, are subject to SB 35 streamlining for projects that dedicate a minimum of 50 percent of units to be affordable to lower-income households. Although the determination of RHNA progress applies to the jurisdiction as a whole, certain locations, such as the coastal zone or prime farmland, are excluded from the streamlining requirements (see areas in red on second map).

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January 2018:
State Gas Tax Increases Since 1993

Posted by Joshua Croff | MTC GIS

With passage of SB 1 in 2017, California has joined the ranks of 38 states both red and blue and the District of Columbia that have stepped up in the face of Congressional inaction and passed legislation to raise their own state gas taxes since Congress last did so in 1993. This month's map reaffirms that infrastructure investment can, and often does, transcend party lines, or as Norm Mineta used to say: “There is no such thing as a Democratic bridge or a Republican road.” The largest transportation investment in state history, SB 1 will invest $52 billion in California’s roads, bridges and transit systems over the next decade with ongoing annual revenues of over $5 billion per year thereafter.

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